Macsimum News - Next Wave: Tiger’s Real Secret Weapon

Next Wave: Tiger’s Real Secret Weapon - To Rock the Market

Posted by Dennis Sellers Apple ico May 12, 2005 at 10:37pm

Neo is Macsimum News’ international man of mystery. If we told you more, we’d have to kill you.

“Nothing in the world is so powerful as an idea whose time has come.”
Victor Hugo

Tiger on Xserves: A Web Services OS

Mac OS X 10.4 (“Tiger”) has been receiving great reviews from the likes of ComputerWorld, The Wall Street Journal, Japan Today, TIME and countless others. Xserves with Tiger received an early review by eWeek that emphasized Xgrid, Apple’s distributed computing environment. We’re going to hear a lot more about Xgrid in the coming weeks and months ahead, yet the aspect of Tiger on Xserve that interests me the most is its powerhouse potential for being a Web Services Operating System (WS OS).

It’s very likely that most of you have never even heard of a WS OS before it popped up in a press release from IBM, Sony, and Toshiba, in relation to the CELL processor:

“Cell provides a breakthrough solution by adopting a flexible parallel and distributed computing architecture consisting of independent floating point processors for rich media processing. Cell supports multiple operating systems, including PC/WS operating systems, as well as real-time CE [Consumer Electronic] /Game operating systems.”

Frank Casanova’s keynote back in October 2004, presented the very attributes of such an OS/Framework being used in Telecom test sites like DoCoMo and KDDI – two of the most sophisticated Telecoms in the world. He clearly emphasized Tiger on Xserve’s managing and delivering web services

Those of us in North America and elsewhere that access Apple’s iTunes Music Store and actually have an account (Mac or Windows) – are now officially on Apple’s distributed computing network without even knowing it. Apple’s own Patent about the iTunes system confirms this under Abstract:

…The methods and graphical user interfaces are particularly useful for a system that provides purchase and distribution of media in a client-server environment. The graphical user interfaces can be presented to a user at a client (client machine).

References are made throughout this patent in respect to “secure network-based distribution”and media and/or media commerce servers (under patent points # 0003 and 0047 respectively). Apple’s reference to secure network based distribution isn’t something they just dreamed up, but rather relating to another open source project called the Open Grid Services Architecture—which I’ve previously covered. So grid computing is definitely a vital aspect of Apple’s iTunes distribution as it relates to Web Services– thereby confirming that Tiger on Xserve by example is a WS OS.

Here’s the summary of the patent information:
“United States Patent Application20050071780
Kind CodeA1
Muller, Max ; et al.March 31, 2005
Graphical user interface for browsing, searching and presenting classical works

“Abstract

“Improved graphical user interfaces suitable for reviewing, browsing, previewing and/or purchasing media items are also disclosed. The methods and graphical user interfaces are particularly useful for a system that provides purchase and distribution of media in a client-server environment. The graphical user interfaces can be presented to a user at a client (client machine). In one embodiment, the methods and graphical user interfaces can assist users in locating media to be browsed, previewed or purchased. The media can, for example, be audio, video and/or image data. The methods and graphical user interfaces are particularly useful for reviewing, browsing, previewing and/or purchasing classical music.”

If you’re interested in investigating this further you could check out either the Java WS Core Overview PDF or the Globus Toolkit 4.0 overview Web page. You’ll note that there are references made to Tomcat and Apache’s software Axis (the web service engine) that Apple openly supports under their Web Server page. This is all in context with grid computing business models.

Understanding this core value that Xserve with Tiger brings to market is crucial to understandinghow Apple could further exploit this advantage. The first advantage of course, is the fact that the CELL processor will indeed eventually support WS OS based servers like Apple’s Xserve. Yet as important as that will be, today’s chapter will focus on what I consider to be Apple’s core advantage: Unleashing a consumer Web Services platform – which is a whole new kind of beast – and a cool cat at that. Then again, if you already have an iTMS account, then you’re already registered on this new platform – surprise! So with Tiger on Xserve officiallyout in the wild, it’s time to review how Apple could further exploit this advantage to whole new level.

I’ll begin with a few points that I found in a recent entry in Jonathan’s Blog (President & COO Sun Microsystems) entitled “The Real Ecology of Computing” (April 25/05) – which conveniently plays into today’s theme Purrrr-fectly.

Think display over IP

Display over IP: DOIP (“Do IP”) is to the PC industry, what VOIP (voice over IP, simplistically, using the internet to make phone calls) is to the telecommunications industry. Phone calls are near to free at this point, and the business model is undergoing radical change. It’s inevitable that pervasive and sufficient bandwidth will allow most of what happens on a client to migrate to the network. Why upgrade your PC if you can rely on plentiful bandwidth to have someone centrally deliver it as a service? You don’t upgrade your TV set – BBC and News Corp do it for you every evening with fresh content. And you don’t buy a new TV to watch it.

Sun’s entry into the DOIP race is called a SunRay. [What is] its primary value? It’s a PC you never, ever upgrade – Whose intelligence is located in someone else’s datacenter. With a beautiful monitor secured with a SIM card (just like the one in your cell phone). No, it’s not perfect for all applications – SunRay only work where Google works (i.e., where there’s a reasonable network connection). But I wouldn’t bet against ubiquitous network coverage. Even on an airplane.

Sun Microsystem’s originating vision was announced during the very same week that both Apple and IBM provided theirs (as covered in chapter 11) back in 2001, yet revealing one of the missing ingredients that the others failed to include. That of course was the fact that ISPs (internet service providers), like Telecom’s, would play a central distribution role in this next wave of the internet. That my friend, is exactly what Apple’s pilot-testing has already achieved in Japan with OS X Tiger based Xserves on DoCoMo and KDDI networks, and have been doing right here in North America, as I’ve previously covered!

So Jonathan’s introduction to DOIP in context with Web Services in an Always-On environment actually provides us with the backdrop for the universal Webtone. To advance the Webtone business model, Sun introduced software subscriptions to the enterprise and Government sectors in 2004. Now is the time for that same business model to extend further into the ecosystem by introducing it to both the mobile professional and broader consumer markets.

Apple’s Webtone

By definition, a Webtone denotes continuous, immediate access to the Internet, with sufficient bandwidth to deliver services via mobile phones, supercomputers, and Web appliances. Apple’s use of Device over IP will be found symbiotically connected to Xserves – based on Tiger. Apple’s Webtone will be introduced on a new breed of hardware that won’t use OS X Tiger on the client side, but rather a new kind of consumer GUI that is “live,” always on, and ready to serve you. Apple’s hardware will be limited to several incarnations, and I’ll touch on why – later.

The best way to convey what a Live-GUI will mean – is to point you to two unique examples. The first on is found on the Aplix Corporation Web site. I’ll begin with just a little background of theirs so as to frame this basic overview, and then go right into the heart of the matter.

The launch of JBlend: In anticipation of network connectivity for consumer electronics and with a view to more efficient development, greater operability and enhanced security – JBlend was released. Java had been successfully fused with existing embedded software technology.

Following this, a version of JBlend that supported the JTRON specifications was released. (JTRON is a fusion of Java and the ITRON real-time OS, an OS that has been widely adopted in household electrical appliances.) As the first technology to support the JTRON specifications, it received much attention worldwide. The first consumer electronics running JBlend went on sale in 1999. The first products were a family digital image management system, Digital Photo Album, from Sanyo and an MD player with built-in digital camera, recording and editing functionality, MD DISCAM, from Sony. These were some of the first consumer electronics worldwide to go on sale that ran Java. This is how the Java platform for embedded computing, JBlend, made its debut.

The year 2001 was momentous for JBlend. NTT DoCoMo chose JBlend for their Java-compatible mobile phones made by Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications. Vodafone KK and KDDI, also started to utilize JBlend for their Java mobile phones. It didn’t stop just with mobile phones though; SANYO started shipping digital televisions running JBlend.

The future of JBlend: Currently the main use of the Java Runtime Environment in most mobile phones is for games, in other words it is used as a contents player to run programs that are first downloaded onto the device. A Java Runtime Environment is capable of much more than this.

The true valueof JBlend is not just as a superior contents player. Aside from games, if the other functions available on mobile phones such as the address book, calendar (PIM), messaging applications, web-browser and chat were implemented as Java applications, they could all run on the JBlend Java Runtime Environment.

That would make it possible for users to select those features they want and download them, like games, to create a mobile phone that suits their own personal tastes and needs. Another benefit for mobile network operators is the possibility of deploying new services simply by creating a Java application. The service can be launched directly to all users with mobile phones running JBlend.

Aplix is pushing forward to broaden and strengthen the adoption of JBlend in mobile phones by moving on from JBlend as a contents player with limited functionality to take full advantage of its power as a full Java Runtime Environment, a systems platform operated by Java applications capable of a wide range of comprehensive functionality.

Ahhh so isn’t that interesting – a content player transforming into a full Java Runtime environment running on a JTRON real-time OS. Think back to the beginning of this article where I pointed to the two kinds of OSes that CELL supports. I covered Tiger on Xserve, so what’s missing here is a real-time client side OS which I believe will be introduced on Apple’s new Webtone hardware – whenever it arrives.

The second example of a content player transforming into a full Java Runtime environment, relates to the desktop. A little over a year ago, I stumbled unto NEC’s “it” pilot program in Japan, which has since shut down. If you go to this page you’ll at least be able to see 2 snapshots of one aspect of this programs existence. One of the goodies that this test-pilot program provided users with was a “live” screensaver. It was a drop-dead gorgeous unfolding grid-like structure that allowed users to drop in their favorite TV channels and/or movies.

Yet the intrinsic value of this test-pilot program was its next generation content player based on JavaOS that was available for both Mac OS X and Windows. The player was very much like a small VPN for running applications, while doubling as a media player for movies and streaming media. In a flash, I knew instantly that this would be Apple’s market approach for their coming Web Services platform.

Even though I was fully aware of the fact that NEC had worked with Oracle and Apple on an NC-OS back in 1997 that was based on Apple’s Rhapsody (now OS X), it was only when I actually saw NEC’s “it” content-player that I realized what part of Rhapsody/OSX was being utilized for that NC – QuickTime. An NC can’t run a full OS, so now all of the pieces came together perfectly.

QuickTime on Steroids

Although Apple’s own future Webtone hardware will be one of the ways to attack this emerging web services market, it’s not the only way that Apple’s Live-GUI will hit the market running. Oh no. Let’s not forget that QuickTime now resides on approximately 375 million Window users’ desktops. So as in the story of Troy, Apple’s Trojan horse, once thought of as a mere content player, will surprise its host by doubling as a full Java Runtime environment/web services platform. In the twinkling of an eye, it changes everything. The Windows box is now a Tiger client powered by Xserves on the network.

When Frank Casanova made the statement that – H.264 “changes everything” a year ago, that was our clue. Think back to the NEC content player/platform example that presented itself as a small VPN window. With H.264 – users will have the ability to go full screen on the desktop – not just for streaming content like movies and IP/TV content – but also Java, pure Internet applications as PeopleSoft referenced in context with Apple’s Safari browser. Safari, I contend, will be one of the i-applications assembled within this new Web Services/Webtone platform based on QuickTime.

You know our friend over in Redmond always tries to get a head of an Apple announcement. You remember how he rushed to release Windows XP ahead of Apple’s OS X debut and even branded it so as to confuse the market. Once again, he’s trying to beat Apple to the punch, as follows:

A decade ago, Bill Gates and other executives at Microsoft decided that traditional packaged software was dead. All software would eventually be delivered via the Internet, they concluded.

Now, Microsoft is quietly working on the technological innards that will one day let the company offer corporate customers what is known in the industry as “software as a service.” Some of Microsoft’s competitors in the business software market, such as Salesforce.com and NetSuite, have been offering software as a service product for years.

Note that the NetSuite link references working with Apple’s Safari web browser and included this line: “NetSuite’s patent-pending ‘real-time dashboard’ technology provides an easy-to-use view into role-specific business information that is always up-to-date.” As C/Net pointed out, Netsuite is already delivering “software as a service” – and Netsuite is a Safari partner. And what do you know; they offer an always on “real-time dashboard” as part of that suite. Perhaps now you could understand why enterprise developers such as PeopleSoft (now Oracle), NetSuite and Business Objects have had such a keen interest in a browser that currently only holds about 1 percent market share. Yes, of course. And pleeeease – Gates and company thought of this a decade ago (1995)? Oh, you mean four years after Apple and IBM introduced their project TalOS for web services platform. Isn’t in nice to remind folks of this context? It was never an original Microsoft idea, never.

And while I’m on the subject of real-time dashboards, Apple’s new Web services client will of course support XML, which Apple’s own Web page covers as follows:

Web Services are XML-based applications, hosted on the Internet, which provide information and services to customers and users around the world.

These applications provide a wide variety of services such as stock quotes, news reports, currency conversions, language translation, zip code lookup, weather reports, spell-checking, maps and many more creative and useful tools.

That’s exactly what Apple’s very own Dashboard is all about! But isn’t Dashboard available only on OS X Tiger for the desktop? Not really. If content like iTunes is being delivered today via Xserves powered by Tiger, then any Tiger client on the network (their grid network) will have the ability to access other web services, including Dashboard – even to Windows based clients once they upgrade to QuickTime 7 – which is vital to this web services platform.

On the enterprise application front, I’d urge everyone to read this specific Workplace 2.0 article that I think could shed further light on how enterprise applications like IBM’s Workplace will run natively on Apple’s Web Service platform. Now that you understand the nature of network clients powered by Tiger, you’ll be able to understand how this all fits together. However, the unique twist to this, that isn’t covered in that article, is that business applications will be made available on a subscription basis. This is apparently something that Apple, IBM, Sun and others want to spring on the market, in concert. Now that would be a Wave alright – a Shock-Wave.

Apple’s Webtone hardware & licensing

Apple’s own Webtone hardware will likely be limited to a notebook and a simple client-display similar to that of the SunRay. There’s a third option, but that’s a story for another day. Ultimately though, we’ll finally see licensing from Apple emerge beyond the iPod.

The incredible flexibility of this new breed of platform could provide OEM’s with a variable licensing fee schedule due to the fact that they could custom tailor their units with various iapplication component combinations. It’s not a solid block like a traditional OS. In addition, licensees could also develop their own components, Dashboard widgets and perhaps even alter the color scheme of these components to match their own brands. If they don’t want to use Safari, fine – they’ll likely have the option to choose from any of the browsers available from the browser alliance that will be compliant with Apple’s framework.

Apple’s new Web Services platform will be able to be extended to Set Top Boxes and eventually network centric Televisions in 2006, as I pointed out with my Sony example in chapter 7. In fact that’s the beauty of H.264 in that it will allow Apple’s Web Services platform to scale from 3G phones to massive Plasmatron TVs with only the relevant iApplication/components that the user gets to choose! Developers will certainly see the value proposition of such a scaleable and flexible platform.

Apple, the Internet Company

If you remember, I closed chapter 12 by pointing to Apple’s Eye on the prize – being the 1.5 billion subscriber base for wireless services – referenced by Steve Jobs at a Motorola event surrounding iTunes in 2004. That pool of subscribers over the course of the next five years will individually average somewhere in the vicinity of about five wireless devices each. That’s not too difficult to imagine when you think of the wide variety of digital devices to choose from: cell phone, music player, Set Top Box, PVR, in-vehicle Telematics system, PDA and so on and so forth. Therefore that 1.5 billion subscriber base would then account for an estimated 7.5 billion digital devices. Now multiply that out by how many web services each will utilize in a given month and you have a staggering Web Services economy exploding into existence over the next five years – that never existed before! This is the market for Apple’s new Web Services platform. It was engineered brilliantly and specifically to address the needs of the next wave of the internet’s 1.5 billion subscribers!

It was Steve Jobs who made it crystal clear back in 2001 that Apple was in store for a new direction when he stated that ”…We believe Apple will be one of the ten most profitable Internet companies in the next 10 years.” What kind of company? Yes, of course, an internet company, a Web Services company! With licensing, Apple could leapfrog Redmond’s efforts – but only if they launch this now! This platform has the power to rock the market like nothing ever has before.

Why do you think both Steve Jobs and Frank Casanova have been keeping us up to date with QuickTime distribution numbers at their last several keynotes? In June 2004 Apple announced that 250 million users downloaded QuickTime and by January 2005 that figure had climbed to 330 million. Simply using Apple’s own math, they’re likely to announce a number closer to 400 million users of QuickTime during Steve Jobs Keynote this June.. And just to pound the real message home – Steve Jobs proudly touted that 98% of QuickTime users were in fact Windows users! So sorry folks, but Apple’s focus isn’t on the traditional desktop market; it’s on serving that 1.5 billion user base with advanced web services on all their digital devices! With an estimated 400 million QuickTime user base to work with, can you now understand why Apple’s new Web Services platform will be centered on their QuickTime Player? All of a sudden, that 1.5 billion subscriber base figure doesn’t sound all that daunting anymore, does it?

Apple’s coming QuickTime Web Services platform powered by OS X Tiger Xserves – is inevitable, inimitable, and will crash the gates of hell forever! – (Well, at least Redmond’s)

Next Wave of the Internet Series

Part 13: Apple’s connections to Wind River, Red Hat and Linux-ITRON

Part 12: “Apple’s NEW-TRON Bombshell”

Part 11: “Apple and IBM: Rethink the PowerPC Revolution”

Part 10: “Suddenly! The Next Wave of the Broadband Wars”

Part 9: The Next Wave: Apple Patent Reveals QuickTime TV: What the Other Sites Missed

Part 8: A Closer Peek at Sony’s CELL Patent: What’s missing here?

Part 7: The Next Wave: Apple’s Connection to the CELL Processor

Part 6: Next Wave: Motorola, MeshNetworks and In-Car iServices

Part 5: OS X Tiger’s QuickTime Could Reach More than 3 Billion Users a Day!

Part 4: Apple’s QuickTime Leaps to the Silver Screen and Beyond

Part 3: Tiger Revving-up QuickTime TV Live-Network

Part 2: On the Road to iPod-Live! In 2005

Part 1: Apple’s Next Wave of the Internet: Darwin’s leap to MAN

The Next Wave of the Internet Series
By Neo

Neo Says:

I’ll be giving you various URL’s that were not set right in this story. For Webtone: http://www.smartcomputing.com/editorial/dictionary/detail.asp?guid=&searchtype=1&DicID=6064&RefType=Dictionary

The real graphic is found here in full: http://www.aplix.co.jp/en/jblend/jblend/basic09.html

Missing text under the graphic is: The true value of JBlend is not just as a superior contents player. Aside…

The title is screwed up - but you should be able to get it minus the gremlins. If I find anything else I’ll be back.

While I’m here, I’ll point you to this: Sun�s Network Computing http://sunchat.savvis.tv/post/20050512_archive/

That link covers a very recent online chat with Sun Micro executives and top engineers that talk a lot about the Grid and mention a wireless SurRay Laptop - in respect to a thin client - web based unit. There’s also at least references to developers bringing Solaris to the PPC.

Cheers! - Neo

Posted on May 12, 2005

Neo Says:

Sorry guys, the webtone link is screwy - so here’s the definition:

Webtone
A term used to describe the process of making the Internet as easy-to-use and accessible as phone service. Similar in nature to the telephone-specific word �dial tone,� Web tone denotes continuous, immediate access to the Internet, with sufficient bandwidth to deliver services via mobile phones, supercomputers, and Web appliances.

Posted on May 12, 2005

Neo Says:

The Apple patent # is : 20050071780
I have no idea why this URL doesn’t work on Macsimum.

Posted on May 12, 2005

Neo Says:

Another hyperlinked was missed re: If you go to this page you�ll at least be able to see 2 snapshots of one aspect of this programs existence.

The URL is: http://216.239.39.104/translate_c?hl=en&u=http://www.nec.co.jp/press/ja/0402/2302-05.html&prev;=/search?q=it2004.jp&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&sa=G

Posted on May 13, 2005

Bob Says:

I’ve booked marked the story Neo and will really get into it over the weekend. But on the first go-around - it looks extremely interesting. Knowing that you’ve always said that this was a basic overview, it really doesn’t have to play out exactly like you have it in order for this to be great.

I could definitely see the idea of the QuickTime Player doubling as a VPN and integrating various iapplications into one convenient Gui is really the way to go. A lot of my friends with PCs use iTMS and own iPods. So instead of having a bunch of future iapps having to be scattered on their desktop - a convenient combination would be cool.

It’s late, so I’ll drop by this week end. Sorry that Macsimum had so much trouble setting this story up and thanks for getting me the URL for the Aplix Content Player/Systems PLatform combination graphic so that I could get a good look at what you were describing. That’s an interesting site in general. Well - great article again Neo.

Typical “grabber” article (and screwed-up links :)

As always, an in-depth reading (including the links) will prolly take several hours (including a re-read of prior chapters).

It is spot on that future “computer applications” will run on “servers” and deliver their content via “services” to “player” applications on client machines.

One thing I have not seen discussed directly, is where the content resides.

In the early days of networking, there was an “In” joke about computers clogging the network with packet requests:

--Who’s got the data?
--Do You have the data?
--No, I don’t have the data!
--I had the data a while ago…
... ad infinitum

The joke was that the network was so clogged looking for the data that it had no capacity to actually transmit the data.

How things have changed.

In the future, your files will reside on the Internet.

They will be immediately accessible (with proper authorization)
from anywhere you are.... Said another way: “Wherever you go,
there you are… and your files are there with you!”

Backup will not be an issue because the files will automatically
exist in multiple places spread across the globe and in space
(hint: they already do).

Sending and sharing your files will be more efficient: you don’t
have to upload the files to an email server-- they already exist
on the network; you only need send a link (and decryption key, if
desired) to the recipients.

Your data are secure: Even if your house burns down and/or
your bank’s safe deposit (or other data repository) is destroyed…
your files persist. (Hard disk crashes & scratched DVDs are a
distant, bad dream).

Access to sensitive data can be limited by fingerprint scans,
retina scans, voiceprints… whatever.

Mass retrieval of your files are possible with bittorrent.

The only thing you need is a device (computer, cell phone, PDA,
tablet, etc.) and access to the Internet.

Think about it!

Dick

Posted on May 13, 2005

Neo Says:

The URL for “press release” re CELL :
http://www10.edacafe.com/nbc/articles/view_article.php?section=ICNews&articleid=154957

Posted on May 13, 2005

Mac Says:

It “will crash the gates of hell forever!” I don’t believe you mean that as hyperbole, Neo.

I read the whole article carefully, and I get it.

Using QuickTime 7 with h.264 and (JBlend if necessary) on any computer, or any other electronic device on which it can operate, including any device running JTRON and ITRON, which is the world’s number one OS (not Windows) and can run on any electronic “chipped” device, imbedded or otherwise…

Apple and its very prominent partners will bring to you an entire desktop of applications, covering non-broadcast media, to business (Oracle, PeopleSoft, NetSuite, IBM’s Workplace), to games (Sony), to broadcast TV, Radio, etc....

To Apple’s own Safari and iLife applications...plus DVD Studio Pro, Final Cut Pro Suite, iWork, etc....

And all of it can even run on CRUDDY Windows and Linux boxes, running a virtual Java desktop, and undoubtedly…

You will be able to subscribe to whatever you want…

And you’ll be able to see it on your full-screen virtual desktop which is covered by the Apple patent related to QuickTime you described in an article where you were raked over the coals by the ignorant, and I came to your deserved defense.

And by the way, Microsoft, every person and company you’ve screwed over the years now gets to screw you, and Microsoft software becomes an irrelevant part of the equation, unless they join the revolution, which will mean they lost the war.

Your best article yet, Neo--a long ways toward the wrap-up I’d hoped for.

As far as I know, Neo, you’re the only one in the “media” to have caught on to this. How many times in the last month have you heard that MS has the world’s most popular OS, when that is WRONG--AND almost no one has written about ITRON?

If the collective argument of your series, with this article, is original to you, then, my friend, you are brilliant. Excellent job!

Posted on May 13, 2005

MacJack Says:

So where does this leave the Mac? Will Jobs maintain it as a hobby on the side, or license it out to other PPC hardware makers?

Posted on May 13, 2005

Neo Says:

Thanks for dropping by Dick. Ya screwed up links is right, even some of the ones I put up in the comments area, like the last one still won’t work...on this site! With Dennis out of town, the graphic will likely remain screwed up, but at least that URL link I posted does work thankfully.

I had a follow up story I wanted posted this afternoon, but with Dennis out, it will unfortunately not make it. Bloody “Murphy’s Law”: If things can go wrong, they will :-).

I don’t have it handy now, but Jonathan’s blog was describing SIM cards at 1GB! You could also check out a site called ORB: http://www.orb.com/what_is_orb/ to give you another angle on this, even though it’s PC based.

Posted on May 13, 2005

Neo Says:

To MacJack. Hey, the Mac will do just fine. A lot of what you’ll access with a network computer resides on your Mac. Need to work with video or photoshop, NC’s won’t help you there. So the NC doesn’t kill the Mac, it just allows Apple to sell into the larger market in a whole new way and have the advantage of mass licensing! Like I said, hijacking the PC as a Tiger-client works with the PC.

To Mac - Well Apple is working with DoCoMo that uses JBlend on their phones today, but Apple’s solution could, on many types of NC’s including their own, won’t require JBlend. Though the two will be compatible because of Java.

Glad you liked the article Mac, as you’ve been following the series for a long time and could see how all of the chapters lead up to this chapter! Your feedback is always appreciated!

Cheers! - Neo

Posted on May 13, 2005

Dick Applebaum Says:

To MacJack

My impression, from reading Neo’s other articles and the recent one on the portable “Display” device-- what he is talking about here, is additive to the existing computer market.

Similar to a cell phone, the next wave will deliver services to people who would not otherwise buy a computer or surf the net in addition to those of us who already do.

To Mac

I agree with you on the cell phone-- i consider it to be a tether (and a very annoying one, at that).

Your final paragraph about how much processing power/storage needs to to remain on the desktop raises an interesting question.

It reminds me of something I recently read about Apple’s iPod/ITMS offering… it stated that Apple had masterfully exploited the “Razor vs Razor Blades” marketing technique by making no [little] profit on ITMS sales in order make high profits on the iPod.

Now, the interesting part was that at some point in the future, the roles of razors and razor blades will be switched… as the competition drives down the price [profits] of the iPod, Apple will license it to the competition and make its [huge] profits on the ITMS service.

I think you’ve hit on a similar situation with the next wave of client devices vis-a-vis services.

Why, indeed, would you want to spend the time and $ to maintain a desktop to do your work when you could do it cheaper/faster/better with a service that is accessible from anywhere, at anytime?

Assuming that all the privacy/security/accessibility issues are addressed, the key will be to convince the desktop user to use the service.

Maybe Apple will offer:

-- minimal computing/storage client devices with high-quality/capacity A/V (essentially a networkable HD display with a CPU/GPU)

-- Grid-enabled Pro apps at current (or somewhat higher) prices

-- Free/reasonably priced Grid software (XGrid/XGrid Server)

-- inexpensive, easily gridable hardware components (headless boxes with CPU/RAM/CELL chip/Storage & no optical drives)

So, the current user can build his own private grid solution & get comfortable offloading processing & storage from the desktop.

... And, at the same time, Apple could offer an inexpensive iService that interfaced the same client device, and provided the same function on Apple’s Grid!

So the user has a choice: DIY/RYO or subscribe to an iService?

Apple makes profit while transitioning the users from desktop to thin client.

This could be the ultimate out-sourcing!

Posted on May 13, 2005

Neo Says:

Thanks Mac, you stated that great about the entire installed base - Excellent.

I see that Dennis is trying to work out some of the kinks - well at least with the aplix graphic, so he might be able to get my short follow-up story up today (1 Page) that I think will interest the gang.

Xserves with Tiger and webservices, like I point out with dashboard widgets has a lot of potential for developers. I saw an next generation wireless watch that someone is working on (I think in an NEC lab) that made me think of how various widgets could be used on this watch, like Apple’s international clock which would be cool. So Apple has the power to attack the market like a military exercise - by land, sea, air etc. - and surprise a lot of folks.

Anyways, thanks to some of the new people dropping in and to Mac and Dick that always shed some interesting viewpoints to broaden the discussion. Keep an eye open for that follow up story. I think it’ll hit home as to just how real this revolution is that’s coming, on .... You’ll see.

Cheers! - Neo

Posted on May 13, 2005

Dick Applebaum Says:

To Mac & Neo

Mac wrote:

The key as I see it, Dick, is that the scenario laid out by Neo applies to the ENTIRE INSTALLED BASE OF DESKTOPS, with the rest thrown in as a huge potential market. That�s bigtime stuff. It�s way more than any particular device, including the cell phone.

Neo wrote:

Thanks Mac, you stated that great about the entire installed base - Excellent.

So, if I understand, you guys are saying that the Next wave of device/service products will [primarily] sell into the desktop installed base rather than into the larger population of non-computer users.

You may be correct, but I think that it depends on the product (the device and the service).

What if there were a product that inexpensively delivered VOD to itself and//or to a large screen/projector.

This is an opportunity that doesn’t address the current desktop market.

Dick

Posted on May 13, 2005

kipnus Says:

Does Apple recieve a royalty on all PowerPC’s produced, whether they are in IBM machines or video game consoles?

Posted on May 13, 2005

Neo Says:

No, I didn’t mean that at all, though I could understand how you arrived at that with a single quote.

All I was saying is that the quickest way for Apple to strike is simply to take advantage of their Trojan horse - QuickTime, that’s already on 375 million PC x86 boxes. That’s one hell of a number/base to sell into Dick. Think about that from the perspective of an IBM or other software vendor who could potentially have a base to begin with right out of the strarting gate to get PC’ers to try out Apple’s surprise QuickTime iServices platform for their wares.

That was always Apple’s problem with the chicken or the egg. Developers would snear at Apple’s marketshare and shy away. Once you have a huge base of 400 million in total to appeal to with a simple click of an upgrade to QuickTime - FREE, then names like IBM and others offering business iServices will crack this market wide open for Apple.

Apple’s attack will come from many sides, not just a single market. You’re right Dick about STB/VOD and you know that I’ve covered that in other chapters. Apple’s Next Wave Dick, Changes all the rules - like the original Think Different ad pointed out. Hell, it may take a year or more, but there’s even a twist to the iPod that could surprise you.

Anyways, Mac was the one who saw the bigger picture about the desktop market angle and that’s why I made my comment.

Posted on May 13, 2005

Nerdiot - Now that you mention that, I remember reading something like that in MacWeek Magazine about 9 years back or so. It was the only article snippet that I ever enjoyed from them.

That’s why when I had the privilege of having the “it” player on my desktop that I quickly saw it’s potential as a vehicle for QuickTime as a client side platform - remembering that article.

TIA

Dick

Posted on May 13, 2005

Neo Says:

There are 2 links:

1) The General Episode master page:
http://www.kddi.com/english/corporate/kddi/ubiquitous/en_b_select.html

2) The Market Episode:
http://www.kddi.com/english/corporate/kddi/ubiquitous/en_b_episode1.html

Hope these help Dick.

Neo

Posted on May 13, 2005

Dick Applebaum Says:

Neo

That’s it! Thanks for the links!

I am hearing rumors that Apple is going to intro a quad-processor workstation called xStation with an implied XServe/xGrid backend (if that is the correct term).

This article (and the lead-ups) suggest that Apple will intro a thin client, that I’ll call “Valet” for lack of a better name.

So, in the next several months, Apple could intro [mostly] new categories of devices (thick & thin clients)… and quickly dominate both categoies… and maybe never look back.... mmmmm

Dick

P.S. QT as a substitute for a JRE.... have to think about that one!

Posted on May 13, 2005

Ned Says:

I think it is important to remember that Apple only announces the Downloads of Quicktime. And every copy of iTMS counts as a download. The true numbers on Quicktime are hidden. For example if you buy a CD that includes videos then that content is usually on Quicktime and the CD wil include a copy of quicktime. Also if you are in school lots of educational content is distributed on the CD that comes with the book, that CD usually has a copy of Quicktime on it. If I remember correctly the number that steve quotes is only the number of downloads. There are many other ways that quicktime gets out there but only one is announced. My guess is that number is the only real number because there is no way of knowing how many people that bought the video CD installed Quicktime, but the point remains the channel for getting copies of Quicktime out in the market is much bigger than what is reported, and what is reported is a conservative number.

Posted on May 14, 2005

Neo Says:

Ned, Steve Jobs made it clear that the number didn’t include content as you’re suggesting. I don’t why this is so hard to believe in the 400 million count. Steve Jobs and Frank Casanova have updated this figure and it has nothing to do with content. In fact I was over at Macromedia’s site the other day and bumped into a chart where they claimed that Flash was on 98.3% of all PC’s and had QuickTime at 62%. See chart:
http://www.macromedia.com/software/player_census/flashplayer/

In Frank Casanova’s presentation: http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/ctia2004/
From about the 6 min. mark through to about the 9 min mark he discusses QuickTime Stats about the entire player market (PC’s & devices) that has Apple at 36.8% of Market, MS at 38.2% of the entire player market. He discusses how Every Sony, HP computer now comes bundled with QuickTime etc. and later when talking about CD’s and content he states that they can’t even calculate that. So what is calculable is the QuickTime Player, and the number by June will be 400 Million by using Apple’s own statistical calculations.

Thanks for your comment Ned. Cheers!

Posted on May 14, 2005

Neo Says:

Dick, Valet is an interesting name for a client - very creative.

However your “QT as a substitue for JRE” comment is puzzling. That’s nothing I’m suggesting and in fact the opposite is presented in this chapter. Workplace 2.0 is Java based and I’m saying it’s due to this that it will work on Apple’s client and QuickTime services platform.

Posted on May 14, 2005

Dick Applebaum Says:

Neo

I used to travel quite a bit, both businesss and personal. One of the biggest irritants was the need to herd around all the stuff I always seemed to need to take with me.

I really envied those who had valets to attend to all that & could just focus on the moment at hand.

The thin client concept as illustrated in the KDDI movies acts like a valet-- paying for things you buy, arranging delivery, scheduling events… you just tell the valet what you want & it takes care of the details.

As to the JRE, I quote you from this article:

“QuickTime on Steroids

Although Apple�s own future Webtone hardware will be one of the ways to attack this emerging web services market, it�s not the only way that Apple�s Live-GUI will hit the market running. Oh no. Let�s not forget that QuickTime now resides on approximately 375 million Window users� desktops. So as in the story of Troy, Apple�s Trojan horse, once thought of as a mere content player, will surprise its host by doubling as a full Java Runtime environment/web services platform. In the twinkling of an eye, it changes everything. The Windows box is now a Tiger client powered by Xserves on the network.”

What also confused me, is several of the images show games and applications running on the client.

Instead, are you saying that QT will completely replace all apps running on the client?

I understand the DOIP part, but wouldn’t QT need to provide UI over IP to be able to replace applications running on the client?

I am talking about things like voice commands, text entry (for data & searches) as well as navigational commands to drill-down/select options and results.

I have never seen/read anything to suggest that these capabilities would be incorporated into QT.

Confused....

Posted on May 14, 2005

Mac Says:

Dick--I think you make good points about Apple being able to offer computing services and thin clients, particularly in the media realm.

Don’t forget that with a TV like Toshiba’s, which will have a CELL processor, that processor is there for a reason, and it has something to do with something other than regular HD (at least to 720p and 1080i), since all the other HDTVs can already handle that without the CELL chip. Well, that chip will be there to DECODE compressed (undoubtably h.264) streams on the fly, perhaps several at a time, I’m guessing. So what OS/software, if any is needed, will be incorporated in the TV?

This is related to your discussion because that TV would be a one-way thin client, two-way if it’s streaming on demand. Also note that if the TV already has a CELL chip, then a Set-Top Box does not have to be very powerful: it just has to pipe it in fast enough.

Apple, which is already a force in media with Final Cut Pro Suite, DVD Studio Pro, and Logic, plus the prosumer apps can offer a turnKey solution to the entire HD and broadcast industries--which is what you suggested, I think.

Sony is developing a CELL workstation, but by agreement, I believe, that will be for game development, and may well be given, with all the Sony developer essentials, to game developers.

Anyway, thin clients have never taken off, leaving a lot of people shaking their heads (especially at Sun Micro)--but the fact is that the IN-HOUSE buy it, maintain it, and replace it model of hardware IT worked because it gave the people who approve budgets something tangible for their bucks, and…

because the usual computing needs haven’t been that strenuous. The model is even taken to the super computer level, but the money comes from outside a business environment, usually, where spending on the R&D;has to bring significant revenue.

But it’s gotten to where a modest post-production shop will need computing power that will push it to the thin client model. That might be part of the “Year of HD,” since the media/broadcast industries are pumping the dollars into the area...well, this year, and next...and next

Bonus thought: What is the most awesome HD experience, in terms of quality of detail, you can find on (U.S., anyway) HDTV? Believe it or not, the intro to “Desperate Housewifes.” Yes, an almost mind-blowing display of intricate detail. It’ll knock your socks off. Added note: when you buy your HDTV, get one with a built-in HD tuner for local digital broadcast. This is the best HD experience today, the regular networks. Next best: HBO HD and Showtime HD (although many of the old Voom! channels were very good, some now on DishNetwork). With a built-in tuner, all you have to do to get HD is use the old, simple TV antenna. Go to your Dad’s house, he still has one on the roof! By the way, the detail (resolution) of HD is nice, but what is rarely mentioned is the saturation of COLOR, especially in 720p.

What does this have to do with the article? I believe, you’ll find out soon!

Now, about Eva Longoria…

Posted on May 14, 2005

Dick Applebaum Says:

Mac

Wow-- lot of good stuff to think about in your post.

I have done some playing with the XGrid Technical Preview.

I am an ADC member and on several Apple lists… especially QT & XGrid

I just installed Tiger Sever so I can play with XGrid 1.0 (Tiger Server is required as the Controller).

I have QT7 Pro and am dabbling in encoding various videos to H.264.

At any given time there are 2-3 G5s, 1-3 G4s (2 laptops and a mini) and 1-2 G3s running in the household (plus a 180 hour TiVo II).

Aside from general curiosity, I see me using QT7 to H.264 encode Home Movies (3 grand kids) and other A/V content for efficient sharing of these over the Internet with friends and Family. I don’t want to screw around burning/mailing DVDs.

I have an Apple dot Mac account that I redirect to my home server where I have 2+ TBytes of HDD.

Essentially, I want to provide VOD for personal home movies to a limited number of people-- some with minimal (gasp) PCs.

I do not own any Pro apps, but have experimented with FC express. I do not have a need for these, but am interested in them because of their potential use of XGrid and delivery of Video over Internet.

Whew!

Before this latest buzz of thin clients and DOIP, I was hoping that the near future would shape up as follows:

1) Apple would restore function to XGrid 1.0 to allow small, ad hoc networks without OS XServer required for the controller (the way it was in the TP). This would allow the unsophisticated user with several computers to easily setup a grid.

2) Code (or uncripple) a feature in QT7 Pro to allow it to automatically recognize and use XGrid agents (if available) for certain tasks: H.264 encoding.

Lets call this automatic ability as an Application being “Grid-Aware”.

3) I would expect the Pro Apps to be “Grid-Enabled” in that they could avail themselves of the Grid by the more formal & rigorous way that is currently implemented in XGrid 1.0.

4) To do this, certain functions (e.g. ray tracing) in the Pro apps would logically become stand-alone components or objects.

5) These functions within the Pro apps would be externalized by providing an interface to them via Automator

6) Automator would be the GUI programming interface for “grid-enabled” apps (it already can be used to compile/build apps… a friend calls it: Ant with a GUI)

Apple would introduce a PowerMac Pro machine with 1 or multiple CPU/Cores and a hardware solution to H.264 encoding/decoding. Both STM and Broadcom have such chips… eventually, though, the CELL chip because it is programmable!

So the people using the Pro apps wold have Apple solutions at almost every level, form a single iMac, PM, PMPro up to a supercomputing grid of these (or XServes)

Whew II !

So I had this all pretty well settled (in my mind).

Then, comes along Neo with his DOIP, thin client and your statement:

“But it�s gotten to where a modest post-production shop will need computing power that will push it to the thin client model. That might be part of the �Year of HD,� since the media/broadcast industries are pumping the dollars into the area...well, this year, and next...and next”

So… how does all this shake/squeeze out in your mind?

And, will I get my Grid-Aware QT?

Dick

P.S. Did a google and found:

http://www.oyemag.com/eva.html

So, forget all the technical stuff. I have :)

Posted on May 14, 2005

Neo Says:

Dick, I don’t even know where to begin with your observation. I think that “doubling” as a java a java runtime environment is clear. QuickTime for media and Java for business apps. So I don’t even get your point of confusion.

The example of Aplix was a mobile example only for the purpose of demonstrating it’s new duality as both content and systems platform in its simplistic form. It wasn’t a perfect example as I don’t happen to have an Apple blue print. But the Aplix site does however provide reading material explaining the duality of a content player and java systems platform combination which isn’t available in respect to the NEC example. So the Aplix example was more about a proven process than it is as the perfect match for an Apple system.

If the NEC pilot test site was still operational and had documentation, then I wouldn’t have even presented the Aplix example. Indeed it’s the NEC example of the “it” player that is closer to what I was trying to convey with it’s VPN window.

This reply had much more to convey but became another story. So I dropped it. I hope you could at least get the idea Dick. The TalOS example that I provided readers with in another chapter is what this is REALLY all about. I believe Apple was able to hide this secret project all these years by dropping “talk of TalOS” and simply hid the project within their Trojan horse vehicle called QuickTime. TalOS never died. QuickTime is TalOS - a full web services platform. IBM was in on TalOS not for “games” but business applications served as web services. Hiding this project behind the media player dropped all suspicion and speculation of TalOS. It was and is brilliant.

Posted on May 14, 2005

Dick Says:

Neo

I must be having a bad brain day!

You say “QuickTime is TalOS - a full web services platform.”

I don’t what it means:: “a full web services platform”.

Say I have a thin client device, say a cell phone or a tablet & on that device resides QT/TalOS:

1) is there also an OS on the device. interfacing QT, the User (GUI, KB, voice commands sound, etc), the
Device, the Internet?

2) Web services, as they exist today, are bandwidth hogs because of the verbosity and human-readability dictates of XML.

3) DOIP would likely mean transmission of large volumes of binary data… not really a strong point of web services

4) in the case (such as DOIP) where both the sender and receiver know the format of the data (say 1280x960x24 pixels of binary data) XML is superfluous and adds non-data overhead in the 200-500% range (depending on the tightness of the XML).

What am I missing?

Be gentle :)

Dick

Posted on May 14, 2005

Neo Says:

Stick to Eva, Dick, you’ll have a better day.

As I stated in another chapter the OS in TalOS was not Operating System! The OS stood for Object Services, before this new term of “Web Services” became the new buzz word. So there’s NO FULL OS, and where a thin client comes in either on a PPC embedded chip or a Linux-ITRON that accomodates real-time Web Services.

The use of “Full” means the capacity to offer video, music, games, TV, business applications, browser = full...Service.

I’m done for the day, say hello to Eva for me.

Posted on May 14, 2005

Dick Applebaum Says:

To Neo and everyone in general.

First, please accept my apologies.

I decided I wasn’t going to post to this thread anymore… I was not getting it and was just adding clutter.

But, after careful re-reading of the article (and references) including excellent comments by Mac and others… I think I finally do get it.

I couldn’t understand how you could interface server apps from the thin client…

VPN (embedded in QT).... Duh!

If I understand correctly:

Cell phones PDAs, MP3 Players,and other specialized devices will have:
-- JavaBlend, JTRON/ITRON or some other minimal OS
-- Some sort of current media player (may already be QT compatible)
-- ability to download apps including a small QT-Lite (media player & VPN client)*

* the main reasons it won’t be pre-installed was covered by Frank Casanova in his preso

DeskTop and Portable computers as we know them today (all CPUs and OSes)
-- Whatever OS and Apps they currently use on the desktop
-- QT as a browser plugin and media player (already/easily installed)
-- QT hidden capability as a VPN client (already/easily installed, inactivated)

New Apple Thin Clients (desktop, laptop, Tablet)
-- minimal hardware except AV,UI & Wired/WIFI (little RAM, some Flash, No HD, no Optical drive)
-- minimal OS with ability to internet/LAN boot/install
-- QT Player and VPN client (installable from Internet/LAN)

The key components are:

VPN thru QT
acceptable bandwidth
efficient data compression (doesn’t h264 have a lossless option)
efficient encoding/decoding
servers, RAIDS and Grids as necessary (maybe even some win/linux boxes)

It appears that Apple is in the Catbird (groan) seat.

They have all the pieces in place (or soon will).

Apple can mass-produce and deliver better thin clients for a lot less $ than Sun (and prolly everyone else [Dell] unless they already have a thin client under development)

Apple’s XServes & RAIDS are price-performance leaders

Apple’s OS X Server is by far the easiest to install and maintain (GUI and/or CLI)

Apple’s OS X Server comes with everything you need, already installed (at no extra charge)

Apple’s OS X Server is less expensive-- a single cost rather than a per client charge

All the ‘Nix/open source advantages.

So, users will be able to run super computer (Grid) versions FC Pro (or the like) from any client, thick or thin ( from a cell phone to a PM Pro) from anywhere.

Whoa!

“There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”
William Shakespeare

Posted on May 15, 2005

Neo Says:

Dick, I forgot to mention yesterday that your list of toys was something to behold - I take donations :-)

If you go back to chapter 12 (Apple’s NEW-TRON Bombshell) and review a few details, it may fill in the missing pieces in how IBM’s Websphere will be ITRON compatible. Being that Apple and IBM will be on the same business Grid, is going to allow both platforms to work together seamlessly.

The ITRON chart (though tiny) is interesting to see how the various implementations fit into this picture.

That said, you’re last post does have a basic grasp. On the thin Client from Apple, there’s always the option of the portable iPod HD to keep in mind, which is going to be a nice tie-in product plug to sell more iPods. Then there are other Twists with a wireless iPod, but that’s a subject for another day. Also Remember, QT on JTRON or Linux-ITRON preinstalled.

Remember, that Apple’s components can be arranged to match a device. So on a Thin Client display or notebook, the first thing most likely to appear will be the familiar browser - whereas for a Windows PC unit, Apple has the option to hide everything within the QuickTime Player or again, reverse the order of things so that everything hides within the browser. How Apple executes on this Dick is anyones guess. You know my reasons for choosing QT, but no matter how logical that angle is, Apple’s execution may differ. So it’s the overall perspective, the overview of this that matters, not the specifics.

This is where the fun comes in. You, Mac or anyone else, may - with enough of the pieces now in hand, be able to present your own scenarios. Many of you can “out-geek” me eyes closed. I’ve taken a stand as to how I see this playing out, but that is just one likely scenario. As long as the underlying principles are applied - there’s simply a number of ways this could all play out.

Remember that tommorow’s one-page follow-up may have a bit of a surprise - in terms of timing confirmation. It now appears that this is going to unfold sooner than we may have thought. Timing of this “core” chapter was a gamble, as Apple could only launch this sometime in the next year. However, one day after submitting this chapter, news came in that forced me to write a follow-up. I would have preferred it to have run on Friday, but Dennis preferred Monday, so fine.

I won’t be back today, so I wanted to thank everyone for joining in since Friday. Your opinions and commentary are always deeply appreciated. I learn from you and get to know some great people.

Cheers!
Neo

Posted on May 15, 2005

Dick Applebaum Says:

Neo

I’d be happy to donate… just don’t know to where/who to send it :) :)

Sorry, I really didn’t mean to hijack the article or the post thread… but I have a rather strange personality quirk called tactile prescience-- I can foresee what things will be, but I need to understand how they work.

I was thinking last night, how this might play out if Apple is able to make most of this solution available (or at least visible) in the next 6 months.

No one will be able to touch them!

The situation of Microsoft is especially ironic and enjoyable vis-a-vis their major product categories: OS, Desktop Apps, Browser, Server.

I like to visualize it this way:

Miss MS is a beautiful girl at the beach.

Coming out of the surf she discovers that she has lost both the top and bottom of her bikini....

She doesn’t have the resources, speed or dexterity to cover everything at once…

Try as she will, everything is exposed…

And everyone watches, enjoying the scene, immensely.

I know I will :)

Looking forward to Monday’s article!

Dick

Posted on May 15, 2005

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Dennis Sellers

Dennis has been a newspaper editor/reporter (seven years) and teacher (seven years). He has over 4,000 magazine, newspaper and online articles to his credit. He has also covered the Mac and tech industries for over a decade for such online publications as MacCentral, MacMinute and now MacsimumNews.