How will Apple fare in predictions of worldwide computer shipments?
Posted by Dennis Sellers 
Mar 24, 2005 at 12:02am
Apple is a company that likes to buck trends. And since the company is firing on all cylinders and many analysts are expected Apple to actually gain some market share in the personal computer realm (see my March 18 editorial, Jobs & Company have the change to pull ahead while other computer vendors face sluggish times.
Despite strong growth in the fourth quarter and the rest of 2004, delayed recovery in Japan and a cautious outlook in the U.S. have led to slightly lower expectations for worldwide personal computer shipments in 2005. The updated forecast from IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker lowers growth in total worldwide personal computer shipments for 2005 from 10.1 percent in the November release to 9.7 percent.
The good news, according to IDC, is that demand is likely to shift into later years and the growth forecast remains above 8 percent through the end of 2009. Total shipments are expected to reach 195.4 million in 2005 on growth of 9.7 percent with total shipment value growing by 5.3 percent to $209 billion. Shipments are projected to reach 273 million in 2009 with a value of $245 billion.
If Apple can maintain the momentum it’s currently building, if the analysts are right and if Apple can make inroads into the IT/enterprise/business arena, the company’s fortunes should really soar. Especially if Apple puts more effort into its markets outside North America.
Following a second year of nearly 11 percent growth, the U.S. market is expected to slow to 7.6 percent growth in 2005, according to IDC. Consumer growth may fall to low single digits in the first quarter of 2005 but full-year growth should top 7 percent. Business growth will lead the market while the public sector is expected to trail other segments.
The research firm says that adoption of portable computers continues to fuel growth in Western Europe. Growth in laptop shipments should top 20 percent in 2005 following over 30 percent growth in 2004 and nearly 40 percent in 2003. The consumer segment remains a key driver with portable shipments growth of more than 40 percent outpacing the commercial segment by roughly 5 points, according to IDC. The iBook continues to offer a strong choice for consumers looking for a laptop. If and when a PowerBook G5 arrives it should really stoke a fire (no processor heat pun intended) in the pro market.
On the other hand, growth of desktop computer shipments in Western Europe is expected to slow to low single-digits from nearly 10 percent in 2004. Perhaps the Mac mini can help Apple escape this trend.
Japan’s business segment continues to lead the market, although relatively strong growth of 12 percent in 2004 is expected to fall below 5 percent in 2005. Unfortunately, the consumer and public sectors have not recovered, and growth in these segments is expected to be roughly flat in 2005, IDC says. Apple seems to be beefing up its efforts in Japan, including – among other things – more Japanese retail stores.
In the Asia/Pacific market, growth is expected to slow from over 16 percent in 2004, but remain in double-digits despite the Indian Ocean Tsunami and efforts to control China’s economy. Public sector growth is expected to outpace growth in business, reports IDC. I’ve said it before and I’ll reiterate it again: China has MAJOR potential for huge Mac sales. But only if Apple puts the time and resources into a major Chinese initiative.
Thoughts? Write me at dsellers@macsimumnews.com
Also, don’t forget this week’s Macsimum poll. We’re asking: “Is the Mac getting more virus-prone?” See our editorial for background information.
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Contributor
Dennis Sellers
Dennis has been a newspaper editor/reporter (seven years) and teacher (seven years). He has over 4,000 magazine, newspaper and online articles to his credit. He has also covered the Mac and tech industries for over a decade for such online publications as MacCentral, MacMinute and now MacsimumNews.
