DisplaySearch: mini-notebook demand to buoy notebook market in 2009

Posted by Dennis Sellers Apr 6, 2009 at 2:00am

I still don’t think Apple will release a traditional “netbook,” but the pressure is on to show that the company can release a whizbang product that redefines this market segment.

Despite what is looking to be a rather dismal year for the personal computer industry as a whole, mini-notebooks, or netbooks, are forecast to grow at more than 65 percent year-over-year in 2009, while the “traditional” notebook market is forecast to grow at just three percent in 2009, according to the latest findings from a branch of the NPD Research Group.

With the economic crisis on everyone’s minds, many buyers are adjusting their discretionary spending and purchasing mini-notes as lower-priced alternatives to notebooks. Some of the growth in the mini-notebook market is a function of cannibalization of entry-level notebooks, but the factors which helped propel the mini-note market initially—low ASPs and basic functionality—remain the key forces propelling growth. DisplaySearch expects consumers will return to typical buying habits after the economy crisis is over, preferring more full-featured and higher-priced notebooks, according to DisplaySearch.

DisplaySearch’s findings also examine how factors such as falling panel prices have enabled the shift in mini-note display sizes first from seven to 8.9 inches, and now from 8.9 to 10 inches, while maintaining comparable street prices for the system. DisplaySearch expects that year-over-year growth of 66 percent in 2009 will push the mini-notebook market to exceed 27 million units, while three year-over-year growth for notebooks will nudge that market to 133 million units.

In the longer term, mini-notebooks will continue to be a force of change in the market, but DisplaySearch does not expect them to replace notebooks.

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