Blu-ray, HD-DVD formats doomed from the start?

Posted by Dennis Sellers Apr 26, 2006 at 8:37pm

If I were going to bet my money on which high-def DVD format would win the battle for next-gen optical storage, I’d probably go with HD-DVD over Blu-ray simply because of its backward compatibility with current DVDs. However, columnist David Morgenstein in a column for eWeek thinks that both formats are doomed though “you won’t hear that from Hollywood or by way of the technology makers.” Why? Environmental concerns, worries about the format war and the future of online storage.

But let’s back up. In case you’ve been vacationing on the moon for the past few months and don’t know Blu-ray from Ray Charles and HD-DVDs from BVDs, here’s the skinny:

Blu-ray (BD) is the name of a next-generation optical disc format jointly developed by the Blu-ray Disc Association, a group of leading consumer electronics and PC companies (including Dell, Hitachi, HP, JVC, LG, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, TDK and Thomson). The format was developed to enable recording, rewriting and playback of high-definition video (HD), as well as storing large amounts of data. A single-layer Blu-ray Disc can hold 25GB, which can be used to record over two hours of HDTV or more than 13 hours of standard-definition TV. There are also dual-layer versions of the discs that can hold 50GB.

The competing format is HD-DVD format, developed by Toshiba. It’s based in large part on existing DVD technology and could well turn out to be less expensive to produce than the Blu-ray. In fact, Toshiba claims it can make HD-DVDs disks for about the same price as current DVDs. Also, players of disks based on Toshiba’s HD DVD technology would be able to play current DVDs as well as those in high-definition, according to Toshiba. Paramount Pictures, Universal Studios, Disney, Warner Brothers and HP have all backed the HD-DVD format.

Morgenstein says that CDs, DVDs and their potential successors are a pending environmental problem, since many millions of discs are consumed annually by content providers and consumers. He expects to see a recycling surcharge added to such media in the months ahead, hiking their prices. Morgenstein also notes that the transition from one installed base to another usually takes a long time.

“Unlike the initial DVD introduction, which faced minimal (nil) competition from VHS tape, consumers already have a well-understood, reliable and inexpensive digital format for content and recording: DVD itself,” he writes. “The adoption rate of DVD was very quick, with sales of 300K units over the first nine months following the introduction of the players in 1997. But that just shows how old and tired the VHS tape format was in its latter days. Will anyone but early adopters purchase (or repurchase) video titles for the high resolution and pay the extra bucks for the privilege? And some content, such as collections of vintage television programs, will benefit only marginally from the extra resolution.”

Finally, Morgenstern feels that downloading will pose more problems for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray formats. Consumers have gained confidence with the benefits of downloading audio and now video files with TiVo video players and the iPod, he notes.

“Instead of moving to new DVD formats, consumers will purchase licenses to download the high-definition titles to a media server,” Morgenstern surmises. “The files are big but not that big. And storing files on a remote server is the greener alternative! Despite its slim capacity, plain ol’ DVD will exist for a long while. But in a short while, just a couple of years, the network will be the king of high-def. And that adoption curve will put DVDs to shame.”

Another thing that could derail or slow the Blu-ray/HD-DVD plans is an unsung format called VMD. But more on that tomorrow.

Thoughts? write me at daseller@earthlink.net

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